Sri Lanka vs Pakistan 3rd T20I Who will win today Match prediction Preview

The final T20I between Sri Lanka and Pakistan arrives at Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium on Sunday, January 11, 2026. Pakistan can seal the series, while Sri Lanka will be desperate to bounce back and level the three-match affair after a rain-abandoned game left the hosts with work to do.

Match details

  • Fixture: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, 3rd T20I
  • Date & Time: Sunday, January 11 — 7:00 pm IST
  • Venue: Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium, Dambulla
  • Broadcast & Streaming: Live stream on FanCode

Where both sides stand

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s concerns will have grown after a 6-wicket loss in the series opener. Batting first, they were bundled out for 128, with Janith Liyanage the lone fighter who made 40 while others struggled. With the T20 World Cup coming up, the hosts need a confident performance — especially from their top and middle order — to restore belief before the global event.

Pakistan

Pakistan arrive with momentum and clear objectives: fine-tune combinations and sharpen both batting and bowling ahead of the T20 World Cup. Their bowling dominated in the opening match — Salman Mirza and Abrar Ahmed claimed three wickets apiece while Shadab Khan chipped in with two. Sahibzada Farhan’s 51 off 36 showcased the batting depth. They’ll look to repeat that clinical display and wrap up the series.

Pitch report

The Dambulla surface usually offers a fair contest. Early on, pace bowlers can extract movement while batters can cash in on the hardness and true bounce of the new ball. As the innings wear on, the wicket tends to slow and becomes easier to bat on. Batting under lights can be tricky for the side chasing — successful chases are often tougher here. Average first-innings T20 score at this venue sits around 165.

Weather outlook

Expect cloudy skies in Dambulla with a small chance of rain early on (around 15%). Humidity will be moderate at 50–60%, and temperatures should hover between 20°C and 25°C. Light interruptions are possible but not highly likely.

Head-to-head snapshot (T20Is)

  • Matches played: 29
  • Sri Lanka wins: 11
  • Pakistan wins: 17
  • No result: 1

Probable XIs

  • Sri Lanka: Dasun Shanaka (c), Dhananjaya de Silva, Kusal Mendis (wk), Charith Asalanka, Wanindu Hasaranga, Maheesh Theekshana, Janith Liyanage, Nuwan Thushara, Dushmantha Chameera, Kamil Mishara, Pathum Nissanka.
  • Pakistan: Usman Khan (wk), Saim Ayub, Sahibzada Farhan, Fakhar Zaman, Salman Agha (c), Shadab Khan, Abrar Ahmed, Salman Mirza, Mohammad Wasim, Faheem Ashraf, Mohammad Nawaz.

Players to watch

  • Janith Liyanage (SL): The middle-order batter has been in good touch in T20s and played a crucial 40 in the opener when others fell around him. He can stabilise Sri Lanka’s innings and offer occasional seam options.
  • Sahibzada Farhan (PAK): A fearless opening batter, Farhan brought form from the tri-series and backed it up with a composed fifty in the first T20I. If he gets another good start, Pakistan’s powerplay could set the tone.

Toss and strategy talk

At Dambulla, there’s a slight statistical edge for teams batting first — six wins out of 11 T20Is have gone to sides setting a target. In recent games at this venue captains have mixed their choices: two elected to bat and two to bowl in the last four matches. Given the wicket’s tendency to slow later and the night-time conditions that can complicate chasing, winning the toss and choosing to bat first could be tempting.

Predicted scenarios

  • Scenario 1 — Sri Lanka bat first: Powerplay 38–42, Sri Lanka 146–155. Pakistan prevail in the chase.
  • Scenario 2 — Pakistan bat first: Powerplay 40–45, Pakistan 155–165. Pakistan win comfortably.

Final outlook — who will win?

Based on the first game, Pakistan look the more complete side, especially with their bowling depth and recent batting displays. Sri Lanka have the home advantage and know the conditions, but they must find better contributions from their top order and execute plans against Pakistan’s varied attack. If Pakistan repeat their opening-match intensity, they start as favourites to clinch the series. Still, in a one-off decider at home, Sri Lanka have the chance to turn it around if their batters fire and bowlers strike early.

Expect a competitive contest under the Dambulla lights — a tense finish is well within reach.

Leave a Comment