The Melbourne Renegades and Melbourne Stars meet at the MCG on Sunday, January 4 in the 22nd match of the Men’s Big Bash League 2025. The Stars want to bounce back after a surprise loss and stay on top of the table, while the Renegades are desperate for momentum and a much-needed win at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Form guide
Melbourne Renegades
The Renegades have had a mixed start to the campaign, with just one win from four matches and a three-game stretch without victory. Their latest outing ended in a 6-wicket loss to the Sydney Sixers, exposing inconsistencies in both batting and bowling. Tim Seifert has been the standout for the Renegades, accumulating 170 runs in four innings at a striking rate near 175. The bowling group has yet to fire consistently; players like Jason Behrendorff and Gurinder Sandhu will need to produce wicket-taking spells to give their side a chance.
Melbourne Stars
The Stars were flying until their recent loss to Brisbane Heat ended a four-match winning streak. Even after posting 195/6, they were pegged back in a 4-wicket defeat, which will sting but also sharpen their focus. The batting has been led by Sam Harper, Marcus Stoinis and Blake Macdonald, while the bowling attack — featuring the likes of Haris Rauf, Peter Siddle and Tom Curran — has delivered key breakthroughs throughout the tournament.
Match details
- Match: Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars — 22nd Match, BBL 2025
- Date & Time: Sunday, 4 January — 12:35 PM IST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG)
- Broadcast: Star Sports network; Live stream on JioCinema
Pitch and weather outlook
The MCG usually offers a balanced surface that helps both batters and bowlers. Fast bowlers can expect some movement in the early overs, while spinners may come into play during the middle overs. Once set, batters find the pitch more forgiving and the quick outfield encourages boundary scoring. The average first-innings total here is around 170, so a score in the 160–185 range is often competitive.
Weather looks pleasant and clear with daytime temperatures near 21–23°C and breezy conditions (winds up to ~20 km/h). Clear skies mean no interruptions expected, although the wind can influence stroke play and the ball’s carry to the boundary.
Head-to-head snapshot
The Stars have the edge historically. In 28 T20 meetings between these Melbourne rivals, the Stars have won 18 matches while the Renegades have claimed 10. There have been no tied or abandoned results in these fixtures.
Probable XIs
Melbourne Renegades (probable)
- Josh Brown
- Tim Seifert
- Mohammad Rizwan (wk)
- Jake Fraser-McGurk
- Oliver Peake
- Hassan Khan
- Will Sutherland (c)
- Gurinder Sandhu
- Andrew Tye
- Matthew Spoors
- Jason Behrendorff
Melbourne Stars (probable)
- Sam Hain
- Sam Harper (wk)
- Campbell Kellaway
- Thomas Fraser-Rogers
- Marcus Stoinis (c)
- Glenn Maxwell
- Hilton Cartwright
- Tom Curran
- Mitchell Swepson
- Haris Rauf
- Peter Siddle
Players to watch
- Tim Seifert (Renegades) — The Renegades’ most consistent batter so far, Seifert has been their go-to run-scorer and can change a chase or set a platform at the top.
- Sam Harper (Stars) — In red-hot form this season with big scores and a high strike rate. Harper’s starts at the top give the Stars an explosive edge.
- Marcus Stoinis (Stars) — A proven all-round threat in the BBL, Stoinis contributes with power-hitting and useful seam bowling, making him a potential match-winner on any day.
Toss insights and strategy
Recent matches at the MCG suggest a slight advantage to teams chasing: across more than a hundred T20s at the ground, chasing sides have recorded more wins than teams batting first. In the most recent T20s at the venue, captains who won the toss tended to bowl first. Given the pitch and typical outfield conditions, bowling first and chasing a target could be the preferred tactic for many captains.
Two likely match scenarios
Scenario A — Toss winner bowls first (Renegades opt to bowl)
- Power-play score: 34–42
- Stars total: 155–170
- Predicted result: Melbourne Renegades pull off an upset with a steady chase
Scenario B — Toss winner bowls first (Stars opt to bowl)
- Power-play score: 30–38
- Renegades total: 165–175
- Predicted result: Melbourne Stars defend comfortably and claim the win
Who’s likely to win?
On balance, the Melbourne Stars start as favourites. They boast a deeper batting lineup, in-form strike bowlers and stronger recent consistency. The Stars’ home comfort at the MCG and superior head-to-head record reinforce their edge. That said, the Renegades possess game-changing batters and experienced bowlers who can turn the match if they find rhythm — so an upset is far from impossible.
Expect a competitive, high-energy clash with batting fireworks and tactical bowling changes deciding the outcome. The toss and early power-play wickets will likely shape the game more than anything else.